lmd_Boucher2015.bib
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@article{2015NatGe...8..181M,
author = {{Myhre}, G. and {Boucher}, O. and {Bréon}, F.-M. and {Forster}, P. and
{Shindell}, D.},
title = {{Declining uncertainty in transient climate response as CO$_{2}$ forcing dominates future climate change}},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
year = 2015,
month = mar,
volume = 8,
pages = {181-185},
abstract = {{Carbon dioxide has exerted the largest portion of radiative forcing and
surface temperature change over the industrial era, but other
anthropogenic influences have also contributed. However, large
uncertainties in total forcing make it difficult to derive climate
sensitivity from historical observations. Anthropogenic forcing has
increased between the Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC; refs , ), although its
relative uncertainty has decreased. Here we show, based on data from the
two reports, that this evolution towards lower uncertainty can be
expected to continue into the future. Because it is easier to reduce air
pollution than carbon dioxide emissions and because of the long lifetime
of carbon dioxide, the less uncertain carbon dioxide forcing is expected
to become increasingly dominant. Using a statistical model, we estimate
that the relative uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing of more than 40\%
quoted in the latest IPCC report for 2011 will be almost halved by 2030,
even without better scientific understanding. Absolute forcing
uncertainty will also decline for the first time, provided projected
decreases in aerosols occur. Other factors being equal, this stronger
constraint on forcing will bring a significant reduction in the
uncertainty of observation-based estimates of the transient climate
response, with a 50\% reduction in its uncertainty range expected by
2030.
}},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2371},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatGe...8..181M},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2015NatGe...8...48W,
author = {{Wang}, R. and {Balkanski}, Y. and {Boucher}, O. and {Ciais}, P. and
{Pe{\~n}uelas}, J. and {Tao}, S.},
title = {{Significant contribution of combustion-related emissions to the atmospheric phosphorus budget}},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
year = 2015,
month = jan,
volume = 8,
pages = {48-54},
abstract = {{Atmospheric phosphorus fertilizes plants and contributes to Earth's
biogeochemical phosphorus cycle. However, calculations of the global
budget of atmospheric phosphorus have been unbalanced, with global
deposition exceeding estimated emissions from dust and sea-salt
transport, volcanic eruptions, biogenic sources and combustion of fossil
fuels, biofuels and biomass, the latter of which thought to contribute
about 5\% of total emissions. Here we use measurements of the phosphorus
content of various fuels and estimates of the partitioning of phosphorus
during combustion to calculate phosphorus emissions to the atmosphere
from all combustion sources. We estimate combustion-related emissions of
1.8 Tg P yr$^{-1}$, which represent over 50\% of global atmospheric
sources of phosphorus. Using these estimates in atmospheric transport
model simulations, we find that the total global emissions of
atmospheric phosphorus (3.5 Tg P yr$^{-1}$) translate to a
depositional sink of 2.7 Tg P yr$^{-1}$ over land and 0.8 Tg P
yr$^{-1}$ over the oceans. The modelled spatial patterns of
phosphorus deposition agree with observations from globally distributed
measurement stations, and indicate a near balance of the phosphorus
budget. Our finding suggests that the perturbation of the global
phosphorus cycle by anthropogenic emissions is larger thanpreviously
thought.
}},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2324},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatGe...8...48W},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
