lmd_Li2013.bib
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@article{2013ClDy...40.2123D,
author = {{Dufresne}, J.-L. and {Foujols}, M.-A. and {Denvil}, S. and
{Caubel}, A. and {Marti}, O. and {Aumont}, O. and {Balkanski}, Y. and
{Bekki}, S. and {Bellenger}, H. and {Benshila}, R. and {Bony}, S. and
{Bopp}, L. and {Braconnot}, P. and {Brockmann}, P. and {Cadule}, P. and
{Cheruy}, F. and {Codron}, F. and {Cozic}, A. and {Cugnet}, D. and
{de Noblet}, N. and {Duvel}, J.-P. and {Ethé}, C. and {Fairhead}, L. and
{Fichefet}, T. and {Flavoni}, S. and {Friedlingstein}, P. and
{Grandpeix}, J.-Y. and {Guez}, L. and {Guilyardi}, E. and {Hauglustaine}, D. and
{Hourdin}, F. and {Idelkadi}, A. and {Ghattas}, J. and {Joussaume}, S. and
{Kageyama}, M. and {Krinner}, G. and {Labetoulle}, S. and {Lahellec}, A. and
{Lefebvre}, M.-P. and {Lefevre}, F. and {Levy}, C. and {Li}, Z.~X. and
{Lloyd}, J. and {Lott}, F. and {Madec}, G. and {Mancip}, M. and
{Marchand}, M. and {Masson}, S. and {Meurdesoif}, Y. and {Mignot}, J. and
{Musat}, I. and {Parouty}, S. and {Polcher}, J. and {Rio}, C. and
{Schulz}, M. and {Swingedouw}, D. and {Szopa}, S. and {Talandier}, C. and
{Terray}, P. and {Viovy}, N. and {Vuichard}, N.},
title = {{Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5}},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate, Climate change, Climate projections, Earth System Model, CMIP5, CMIP3, Greenhouse gases, Aerosols, Carbon cycle, Allowable emissions, RCP scenarios, Land use changes},
year = 2013,
month = may,
volume = 40,
pages = {2123-2165},
abstract = {{We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to
study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and
anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive
carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric
chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it
represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical
processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an
Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a
multitude of configurations associated with different boundary
conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and
interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model
components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate
historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different
scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5
model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated
with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different
Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several
scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by
CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections
primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there
is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming
to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the
climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the
twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario.
Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes
depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming
(and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these
changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The
representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown
to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the
magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...40.2123D},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ClDy...40.2271R,
author = {{Rio}, C. and {Grandpeix}, J.-Y. and {Hourdin}, F. and {Guichard}, F. and
{Couvreux}, F. and {Lafore}, J.-P. and {Fridlind}, A. and {Mrowiec}, A. and
{Roehrig}, R. and {Rochetin}, N. and {Lefebvre}, M.-P. and {Idelkadi}, A.
},
title = {{Control of deep convection by sub-cloud lifting processes: the ALP closure in the LMDZ5B general circulation model}},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Deep convection parameterization, Triggering and closure, Oceanic versus continental convection, Diurnal cycle of precipitation, High resolution simulations to evaluate parameterizations assumptions},
year = 2013,
month = may,
volume = 40,
pages = {2271-2292},
abstract = {{Recently, a new conceptual framework for deep convection scheme
triggering and closure has been developed and implemented in the LMDZ5B
general circulation model, based on the idea that deep convection is
controlled by sub-cloud lifting processes. Such processes include
boundary-layer thermals and evaporatively-driven cold pools (wakes),
which provide an available lifting energy that is compared to the
convective inhibition to trigger deep convection, and an available
lifting power (ALP) at cloud base, which is used to compute the
convective mass flux assuming the updraft vertical velocity at the level
of free convection. While the ALP closure was shown to delay the local
hour of maximum precipitation over land in better agreement with
observations, it results in an underestimation of the convection
intensity over the tropical ocean both in the 1D and 3D configurations
of the model. The specification of the updraft vertical velocity at the
level of free convection appears to be a key aspect of the closure
formulation, as it is weaker over tropical ocean than over land and
weaker in moist mid-latitudes than semi-arid regions. We propose a
formulation making this velocity increase with the level of free
convection, so that the ALP closure is adapted to various environments.
Cloud-resolving model simulations of observed oceanic and continental
case studies are used to evaluate the representation of lifting
processes and test the assumptions at the basis of the ALP closure
formulation. Results favor closures based on the lifting power of
sub-grid sub-cloud processes rather than those involving
quasi-equilibrium with the large-scale environment. The new version of
the model including boundary-layer thermals and cold pools coupled
together with the deep convection scheme via the ALP closure
significantly improves the representation of various observed case
studies in 1D mode. It also substantially modifies precipitation
patterns in the full 3D version of the model, including seasonal means,
diurnal cycle and intraseasonal variability.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1506-x},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...40.2271R},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013JAMES...5..826Z,
author = {{Zhang}, M. and {Bretherton}, C.~S. and {Blossey}, P.~N. and
{Austin}, P.~H. and {Bacmeister}, J.~T. and {Bony}, S. and {Brient}, F. and
{Cheedela}, S.~K. and {Cheng}, A. and {Genio}, A.~D. and {Roode}, S.~R. and
{Endo}, S. and {Franklin}, C.~N. and {Golaz}, J.-C. and {Hannay}, C. and
{Heus}, T. and {Isotta}, F.~A. and {Dufresne}, J.-L. and {Kang}, I.-S. and
{Kawai}, H. and {K{\"o}hler}, M. and {Larson}, V.~E. and {Liu}, Y. and
{Lock}, A.~P. and {Lohmann}, U. and {Khairoutdinov}, M.~F. and
{Molod}, A.~M. and {Neggers}, R.~A.~J. and {Rasch}, P. and {Sandu}, I. and
{Senkbeil}, R. and {Siebesma}, A.~P. and {Siegenthaler-Le Drian}, C. and
{Stevens}, B. and {Suarez}, M.~J. and {Xu}, K.-M. and {Salzen}, K. and
{Webb}, M.~J. and {Wolf}, A. and {Zhao}, M.},
title = {{CGILS: Results from the first phase of an international project to understand the physical mechanisms of low cloud feedbacks in single column models}},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {low cloud feedbacks, CGILS, single column models, large eddy models},
year = 2013,
month = dec,
volume = 5,
pages = {826-842},
abstract = {{CGILS{\mdash}the CFMIP-GASS Intercomparison of Large Eddy Models (LESs)
and single column models (SCMs){\mdash}investigates the mechanisms of
cloud feedback in SCMs and LESs under idealized climate change
perturbation. This paper describes the CGILS results from 15 SCMs and 8
LES models. Three cloud regimes over the subtropical oceans are studied:
shallow cumulus, cumulus under stratocumulus, and well-mixed coastal
stratus/stratocumulus. In the stratocumulus and coastal stratus regimes,
SCMs without activated shallow convection generally simulated negative
cloud feedbacks, while models with active shallow convection generally
simulated positive cloud feedbacks. In the shallow cumulus alone regime,
this relationship is less clear, likely due to the changes in cloud
depth, lateral mixing, and precipitation or a combination of them. The
majority of LES models simulated negative cloud feedback in the
well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus regime, and positive feedback
in the shallow cumulus and stratocumulus regime. A general framework is
provided to interpret SCM results: in a warmer climate, the moistening
rate of the cloudy layer associated with the surface-based turbulence
parameterization is enhanced; together with weaker large-scale
subsidence, it causes negative cloud feedback. In contrast, in the
warmer climate, the drying rate associated with the shallow convection
scheme is enhanced. This causes positive cloud feedback. These
mechanisms are summarized as the ''NESTS'' negative cloud feedback and the
''SCOPE'' positive cloud feedback (Negative feedback from Surface
Turbulence under weaker Subsidence{\mdash}Shallow Convection PositivE
feedback) with the net cloud feedback depending on how the two opposing
effects counteract each other. The LES results are consistent with these
interpretations.
}},
doi = {10.1002/2013MS000246},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JAMES...5..826Z},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ClDy...40.2251C,
author = {{Cheruy}, F. and {Campoy}, A. and {Dupont}, J.-C. and {Ducharne}, A. and
{Hourdin}, F. and {Haeffelin}, M. and {Chiriaco}, M. and {Idelkadi}, A.
},
title = {{Combined influence of atmospheric physics and soil hydrology on the simulated meteorology at the SIRTA atmospheric observatory}},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate model, Boundary layer parametrization, Evaluation, Land surface, Instrumented site, Land-atmosphere interactions},
year = 2013,
month = may,
volume = 40,
pages = {2251-2269},
abstract = {{The identification of the land-atmosphere interactions as one of the key
source of uncertainty in climate models calls for process-level
assessment of the coupled atmosphere/land continental surface system in
numerical climate models. To this end, we propose a novel approach and
apply it to evaluate the standard and new parametrizations of boundary
layer/convection/clouds in the Earth System Model (ESM) of Institut
Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), which differentiate the IPSL-CM5A and
IPSL-CM5B climate change simulations produced for the Coupled Model
Inter-comparison Project phase 5 exercise. Two different land surface
hydrology parametrizations are also considered to analyze different
land-atmosphere interactions. Ten-year simulations of the coupled land
surface/atmospheric ESM modules are confronted to observations collected
at the SIRTA (Site Instrumental de Recherche par
Télédection Atmosphérique), located near Paris
(France). For sounder evaluation of the physical parametrizations, the
grid of the model is stretched and refined in the vicinity of the SIRTA,
and the large scale component of the modeled circulation is adjusted
toward ERA-Interim reanalysis outside of the zoomed area. This allows us
to detect situations where the parametrizations do not perform
satisfactorily and can affect climate simulations at the
regional/continental scale, including in full 3D coupled runs. In
particular, we show how the biases in near surface state variables
simulated by the ESM are explained by (1) the sensible/latent heat
partitionning at the surface, (2) the low level cloudiness and its
radiative impact at the surface, (3) the parametrization of turbulent
transport in the surface layer, (4) the complex interplay between these
processes. We also show how the new set of parametrizations can improve
these biases.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1469-y},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...40.2251C},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013IJCli..33.3217Z,
author = {{Zhang}, J. and {Li}, D. and {Li}, L. and {Deng}, W.},
title = {{Decadal variability of droughts and floods in the Yellow River basin during the last five centuries and relations with the North Atlantic SST}},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
year = 2013,
month = dec,
volume = 33,
pages = {3217-3228},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3662},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013IJCli..33.3217Z},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013AdAtS..30.1587Z,
author = {{Zhang}, J. and {Li}, L. and {Zhou}, T. and {Xin}, X.},
title = {{Evaluation of spring persistent rainfall over East Asia in CMIP3/CMIP5 AGCM simulations}},
journal = {Advances in Atmospheric Sciences},
keywords = {model comparison, CMIP3, CMIP5, spring persistent rainfall (SPR), atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)},
year = 2013,
month = nov,
volume = 30,
pages = {1587-1600},
abstract = {{The progress made from Phase 3 to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 to CMIP5) in simulating spring persistent
rainfall (SPR) over East Asia was examined from the outputs of nine
atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The majority of the
models overestimated the precipitation over the SPR domain, with the
mean latitude of the SPR belt shifting to the north. The overestimation
was about 1mm d$^{-1}$ in the CMIP3 ensemble, and the
northward displacement was about 3{\deg}, while in the CMIP5 ensemble the
overestimation was suppressed to 0.7 mm d$^{-1}$ and the
northward shift decreased to 2.5{\deg}. The SPR features a
northeast-southwest extended rain belt with a slope of 0.4{\deg}N/{\deg}E.
The CMIP5 ensemble yielded a smaller slope (0.2{\deg}N/{\deg}E), whereas
the CMIP3 ensemble featured an unrealistic zonally-distributed slope.
The CMIP5 models also showed better skill in simulating the interannual
variability of SPR. Previous studies have suggested that the zonal
land-sea thermal contrast and sensible heat flux over the southeastern
Tibetan Plateau are important for the existence of SPR. These two
thermal factors were captured well in the CMIP5 ensemble, but
underestimated in the CMIP3 ensemble. The variability of zonal land-sea
thermal contrast is positively correlated with the rainfall amount over
the main SPR center, but it was found that an overestimated thermal
contrast between East Asia and South China Sea is a common problem in
most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Simulation of the meridional thermal
contrast is therefore important for the future improvement of current
AGCMs.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00376-013-2139-7},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AdAtS..30.1587Z},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ClDy...41.1419V,
author = {{Vautard}, R. and {Noël}, T. and {Li}, L. and {Vrac}, M. and
{Martin}, E. and {Dandin}, P. and {Cattiaux}, J. and {Joussaume}, S.
},
title = {{Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France}},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
year = 2013,
month = sep,
volume = 41,
pages = {1419-1437},
abstract = {{In order to fulfill the society demand for climate information at the
spatial scale allowing impact studies, long-term high-resolution climate
simulations are produced, over an area covering metropolitan France. One
of the major goals of this article is to investigate whether such
simulations appropriately simulate the spatial and temporal variability
of the current climate, using two simulation chains. These start from
the global IPSL-CM4 climate model, using two regional models (LMDz and
MM5) at moderate resolution (15-20 km), followed with a
statistical downscaling method in order to reach a target resolution of
8 km. The statistical downscaling technique includes a non-parametric
method that corrects the distribution by using high-resolution analyses
over France. First the uncorrected simulations are evaluated against a
set of high-resolution analyses, with a focus on temperature and
precipitation. Uncorrected downscaled temperatures suffer from a cold
bias that is present in the global model as well. Precipitations biases
have a season- and model-dependent behavior. Dynamical models
overestimate rainfall but with different patterns and amplitude, but
both have underestimations in the South-Eastern area (Cevennes
mountains) in winter. A variance decomposition shows that uncorrected
simulations fairly well capture observed variances from inter-annual to
high-frequency intra-seasonal time scales. After correction,
distributions match with analyses by construction, but it is shown that
spatial coherence, persistence properties of warm, cold and dry episodes
also match to a certain extent. Another aim of the article is to
describe the changes for future climate obtained using these simulations
under Scenario A1B. Results are presented on the changes between current
and mid-term future (2021-2050) averages and variability over
France. Interestingly, even though the same global climate model is used
at the boundaries, regional climate change responses from the two models
significantly differ.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1621-8},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...41.1419V},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ClDy...41..977J,
author = {{Jin}, X. and {Wu}, T. and {Li}, L.},
title = {{The quasi-stationary feature of nocturnal precipitation in the Sichuan Basin and the role of the Tibetan Plateau}},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Quasi-stationary, Diurnal cycle, Nocturnal precipitation, Sichuan Basin, Tibetan Plateau},
year = 2013,
month = aug,
volume = 41,
pages = {977-994},
abstract = {{The nocturnal precipitation in the Sichuan Basin in summer has been
studied in many previous works. This paper expands the study on the
diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Sichuan Basin to the whole year.
Results show that the nocturnal precipitation has a specific
quasi-stationary feature in the basin. It occurs not only in summer but
also in other three seasons, even more remarkable in spring and autumn
than in summer. There is a prominent eastward timing delay in the
nocturnal precipitation, that is, the diurnal peak of precipitation
occurs at early-night in the western basin whereas at late-night in the
center and east of the basin. The Tibetan Plateau plays an essential
role in the formation of this quasi-stationary nocturnal precipitation.
The early-night peak of precipitation in the western basin is largely
due to strong ascending over the plateau and its eastern lee side. In
the central and eastern basin, three coexisting factors contribute to
the late-night peak of precipitation. One is the lower-tropospheric
southwesterly flow around the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau,
which creates a strong cyclonic rotation and ascendance in the basin at
late-night, as well as brings abundant water vapor. The second is the
descending motion downslope along the eastern lee side of the plateau,
together with an air mass accumulation caused by the warmer air mass
transport from the southeast of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, creating a
diabatic warming at low level of the troposphere in the central basin.
The third is a cold advection from the plateau to the basin at
late-night, which leads to a cooling in the middle troposphere over the
central basin. All these factors are responsible for precipitation to
occur at late-night in the central to eastern basin.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1521-y},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...41..977J},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ClDy...41..937L,
author = {{L'Hévéder}, B. and {Li}, L. and {Sevault}, F. and {Somot}, S.
},
title = {{Interannual variability of deep convection in the Northwestern Mediterranean simulated with a coupled AORCM}},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Regional climate model, Mediterranean region, Gulf of Lion, Open ocean deep convection, Inter-annual variability},
year = 2013,
month = aug,
volume = 41,
pages = {937-960},
abstract = {{A hindcast experiment of the Mediterranean present-day climate is
performed using a fully-coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Regional Climate Model
(AORCM) for the Mediterranean basin. The new model, called
LMDz-NEMO-Med, is composed of LMDz4-regional as atmospheric component
and of NEMOMED8 as oceanic component. This AORCM equilibrates freely,
without any flux adjustment, neither in fresh water nor in heat. At its
atmospheric lateral boundary conditions, it is driven by ERA-40 data
from 1958 to 2001, after a spin-up of 40 years in coupled configuration.
The model performance is assessed and compared with available
observational datasets. The model skill in reproducing mean state and
inter-annual variability of main atmospheric and oceanic surface fields
is in line with that of state-of-the-art AORCMs. Considering the ocean
behaviour, the inter-annual variations of the basin-scale heat content
are in very good agreement with the observations. The model results
concerning salt content could not be adequately validated. High
inter-annual variability of deep convection in the Gulf of Lion is
simulated, with 53 \% of convective winters, representative of the
present climate state. The role of different factors influencing the
deep convection and its inter-annual variability is examined, including
dynamic and hydrostatic ocean preconditioning and atmospheric surface
forcing. A conceptual framework is outlined and validated in linking the
occurrence of deep convection to the efficiency of the integrated
surface buoyancy fluxes along the winter season to mix the initially
stratified averaged water column down to the convective threshold depth.
This simple framework (based only on 2 independent variables) is able to
explain 60 \% (resp. 69 \%) of inter-annual variability of the deep water
formation rate (resp. maximum mixed layer depth) for the West
Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) formation process.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1527-5},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...41..937L},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ClDy...41..551R,
author = {{Rojas}, M. and {Li}, L.~Z. and {Kanakidou}, M. and {Hatzianastassiou}, N. and
{Seze}, G. and {Le Treut}, H.},
title = {{Winter weather regimes over the Mediterranean region: their role for the regional climate and projected changes in the twenty-first century}},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Mediterranean, Winter weather regimes, Climate change, Coupled regional atmosphere-ocean simulation},
year = 2013,
month = aug,
volume = 41,
pages = {551-571},
abstract = {{The winter time weather variability over the Mediterranean is studied in
relation to the prevailing weather regimes (WRs) over the region. Using
daily geopotential heights at 700 hPa from the ECMWF ERA40 Reanalysis
Project and Cluster Analysis, four WRs are identified, in increasing
order of frequency of occurrence, as cyclonic (22.0 \%), zonal (24.8 \%),
meridional (25.2 \%) and anticyclonic (28.0 \%). The surface climate,
cloud distribution and radiation patterns associated with these winter
WRs are deduced from satellite (ISCCP) and other observational (E-OBS,
ERA40) datasets. The LMDz atmosphere-ocean regional climate model is
able to simulate successfully the same four Mediterranean weather
regimes and reproduce the associated surface and atmospheric conditions
for the present climate (1961-1990). Both observational- and LMDz-based
computations show that the four Mediterranean weather regimes control
the region's weather and climate conditions during winter, exhibiting
significant differences between them as for temperature, precipitation,
cloudiness and radiation distributions within the region. Projections
(2021-2050) of the winter Mediterranean weather and climate are obtained
using the LMDz model and analysed in relation to the simulated changes
in the four WRs. According to the SRES A1B emission scenario, a
significant warming (between 2 and 4 {\deg}C) is projected to occur in
the region, along with a precipitation decrease by 10-20 \% in southern
Europe, Mediterranean Sea and North Africa, against a 10 \% precipitation
increase in northern European areas. The projected changes in
temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean are explained by the
model-predicted changes in the frequency of occurrence as well as in the
intra-seasonal variability of the regional weather regimes. The
anticyclonic configuration is projected to become more recurrent,
contributing to the decreased precipitation over most of the basin,
while the cyclonic and zonal ones become more sporadic, resulting in
more days with below normal precipitation over most of the basin, and on
the eastern part of the region, respectively. The changes in frequency
and intra-seasonal variability highlights the usefulness of dynamics
versus statistical downscaling techniques for climate change studies.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1823-8},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...41..551R},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ACP....13.6555H,
author = {{Huneeus}, N. and {Boucher}, O. and {Chevallier}, F.},
title = {{Atmospheric inversion of SO$_{2}$ and primary aerosol emissions for the year 2010}},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry \& Physics},
year = 2013,
month = jul,
volume = 13,
pages = {6555-6573},
abstract = {{Natural and anthropogenic emissions of primary aerosols and sulphur
dioxide (SO$_{2}$) are estimated for the year 2010 by assimilating
daily total and fine mode aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from the
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite
instrument into a global aerosol model of intermediate complexity. The
system adjusts monthly emission fluxes over a set of predefined regions
tiling the globe. The resulting aerosol emissions improve the model
performance, as measured from usual skill scores, both against the
assimilated observations and a set of independent ground-based
measurements. The estimated emission fluxes are 67 Tg S yr$^{-1}$
for SO$_{2}$, 12 Tg yr$^{-1}$ for black carbon (BC), 87 Tg
yr$^{-1}$ for particulate organic matter (POM), 17 000 Tg
yr$^{-1}$ for sea salt (SS, estimated at 80 \% relative humidity)
and 1206 Tg yr$^{-1}$ for desert dust (DD). They represent a
difference of +53, +73, +72, +1 and -8\%, respectively, with respect to
the first guess (FG) values. Constant errors throughout the regions and
the year were assigned to the a priori emissions. The analysis errors
are reduced with respect to the a priori ones for all species and
throughout the year, they vary between 3 and 18\% for SO$_{2}$, 1
and 130\% for biomass burning, 21 and 90 \% for fossil fuel, 1 and 200\%
for DD and 1 and 5\% for SS. The maximum errors on the global-yearly
scale for the estimated fluxes (considering temporal error dependence)
are 3\% for SO$_{2}$, 14\% for BC, 11\% for POM, 14\% for DD and 2\%
for SS. These values represent a decrease as compared to the
global-yearly errors from the FG of 7\% for SO$_{2}$, 40\% for BC,
55\% for POM, 81\% for DD and 300\% for SS. The largest error reduction,
both monthly and yearly, is observed for SS and the smallest one for
SO$_{2}$. The sensitivity and robustness of the inversion system
to the choice of the first guess emission inventory is investigated by
using different combinations of inventories for industrial, fossil fuel
and biomass burning sources. The initial difference in the emissions
between the various set-ups is reduced after the inversion. Furthermore,
at the global scale, the inversion is sensitive to the choice of the BB
(biomass burning) inventory and not so much to the industrial and fossil
fuel inventory. At the regional scale, however, the choice of the
industrial and fossil fuel inventory can make a difference. The
estimated baseline emission fluxes for SO$_{2}$, BC and POM are
within the estimated uncertainties of the four experiments. The
resulting emissions were compared against projected emissions for the
year 2010 for SO$_{2}$, BC and POM. The new estimate presents
larger emissions than the projections for all three species, with larger
differences for SO$_{2}$ than POM and BC. These projected
SO$_{2}$ emissions are outside the uncertainties of the estimated
emission inventories.
}},
doi = {10.5194/acp-13-6555-2013},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ACP....13.6555H},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013PNAS..110.8813E,
author = {{Eagle}, R.~A. and {Risi}, C. and {Mitchell}, J.~L. and {Eiler}, J.~M. and
{Seibt}, U. and {Neelin}, J.~D. and {Li}, G. and {Tripati}, A.~K.
},
title = {{High regional climate sensitivity over continental China constrained by glacial-recent changes in temperature and the hydrological cycle}},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Science},
year = 2013,
month = may,
volume = 110,
pages = {8813-8818},
abstract = {{The East Asian monsoon is one of Earth's most
significant climatic phenomena, and numerous paleoclimate archives have
revealed that it exhibits variations on orbital and suborbital time
scales. Quantitative constraints on the climate changes associated with
these past variations are limited, yet are needed to constrain
sensitivity of the region to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Here, we
show central China is a region that experienced a much larger
temperature change since the Last Glacial Maximum than typically
simulated by climate models. We applied clumped isotope thermometry to
carbonates from the central Chinese Loess Plateau to reconstruct
temperature and water isotope shifts from the Last Glacial Maximum to
present. We find a summertime temperature change of
6-7 {\deg}C that is reproduced by climate model
simulations presented here. Proxy data reveal evidence for a shift to
lighter isotopic composition of meteoric waters in glacial times, which
is also captured by our model. Analysis of model outputs suggests that
glacial cooling over continental China is significantly amplified by the
influence of stationary waves, which, in turn, are enhanced by
continental ice sheets. These results not only support high regional
climate sensitivity in Central China but highlight the fundamental role
of planetary-scale atmospheric dynamics in the sensitivity of regional
climates to continental glaciation, changing greenhouse gas levels, and
insolation.
}},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1213366110},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PNAS..110.8813E},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013JGRD..118.4326W,
author = {{Wu}, T. and {Li}, W. and {Ji}, J. and {Xin}, X. and {Li}, L. and
{Wang}, Z. and {Zhang}, Y. and {Li}, J. and {Zhang}, F. and
{Wei}, M. and {Shi}, X. and {Wu}, F. and {Zhang}, L. and {Chu}, M. and
{Jie}, W. and {Liu}, Y. and {Wang}, F. and {Liu}, X. and {Li}, Q. and
{Dong}, M. and {Liang}, X. and {Gao}, Y. and {Zhang}, J.},
title = {{Global carbon budgets simulated by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model for the last century}},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres)},
keywords = {Global carbon budget, BCC-CSM, temperature-carbon feedback},
year = 2013,
month = may,
volume = 118,
pages = {4326-4347},
abstract = {{The paper examines terrestrial and oceanic carbon budgets from
preindustrial time to present day in the version of Beijing Climate
Center Climate System Model (BCC\_CSM1.1) which is a global fully coupled
climate-carbon cycle model. Atmospheric CO$_{2}$ concentration is
calculated from a prognostic equation taking into account global
anthropogenic CO$_{2}$ emissions and the interactive
CO$_{2}$ exchanges of land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere. When
forced by prescribed historical emissions of CO$_{2}$ from
combustion of fossil fuels and land use change, BCC\_CSM1.1 can reproduce
the trends of observed atmospheric CO$_{2}$ concentration and
global surface air temperature from 1850 to 2005. Simulated interannual
variability and long-term trend of global carbon sources and sinks and
their spatial patterns generally agree with other model estimates and
observations, which shows the following: (1) Both land and ocean in the
last century act as net carbon sinks. The ability of carbon uptake by
land and ocean is enhanced at the end of last century. (2) Interannual
variability of the global atmospheric CO$_{2}$ concentration is
closely correlated with the El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation cycle,
in agreement with observations. (3) Interannual variation of the
land-to-atmosphere net carbon flux is positively correlated with surface
air temperature while negatively correlated with soil moisture over low
and midlatitudes. The relative contribution of soil moisture to the
interannual variation of land-atmosphere CO$_{2}$ exchange is more
important than that of air temperature over tropical regions, while
surface air temperature is more important than soil moisture over other
regions of the globe.
}},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50320},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRD..118.4326W},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ClDy...40.2293C,
author = {{Cattiaux}, J. and {Quesada}, B. and {Arakélian}, A. and
{Codron}, F. and {Vautard}, R. and {Yiou}, P.},
title = {{North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperature extremes in the IPSL model: sensitivity to atmospheric resolution}},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Global climate model, Atmospheric resolution, Mid-latitudes jet stream, Weather regimes, European temperature extremes},
year = 2013,
month = may,
volume = 40,
pages = {2293-2310},
abstract = {{The variability of the European climate is mostly controlled by the
unstable nature of the North-Atlantic dynamics, especially in
wintertime. The intra-seasonal to inter-annual fluctuations of
atmospheric circulations has often been described as the alternation
between a limited number of preferential weather regimes. Such discrete
description can be justified by the multi-modality of the latitudinal
position of the jet stream. In addition, seasonal extremes in European
temperatures are generally associated with an exceptional persistence
into one weather regime. Here we investigate the skill of the IPSL model
to both simulate North-Atlantic weather regimes and European temperature
extremes, including summer heat waves and winter cold spells. We use a
set of eight IPSL experiments, with six different horizontal resolutions
and the two versions used in CMIP3 and CMIP5. We find that despite a
substantial deficit in the simulated poleward peak of the jet stream,
the IPSL model represents weather regimes fairly well. A significant
improvement is found for all horizontal resolutions higher than the one
used in CMIP3, while the increase in vertical resolution included in the
CMIP5 version tends to improve the wintertime dynamics. In addition to a
recurrent cold bias over Europe, the IPSL model generally overestimates
(underestimates) the indices of winter cold spells (summer heat waves)
such as frequencies or durations. We find that the increase in
horizontal resolution almost always improves these statistics, while the
influence of vertical resolution is less clear. Overall, the CMIP5
version of the IPSL model appears to carry promising improvements in the
simulation of the European climate variability.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1529-3},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...40.2293C},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013AdAtS..30..699Z,
author = {{Zhang}, J. and {Li}, L. and {Zhou}, T. and {Xin}, X.},
title = {{Variation of surface temperature during the last millennium in a simulation with the FGOALS-gl climate system model}},
journal = {Advances in Atmospheric Sciences},
keywords = {last millennium, external forcing, surface temperature, cloud radiative forcing, climate system model},
year = 2013,
month = may,
volume = 30,
pages = {699-712},
abstract = {{A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the
specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic
forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature
responses to specified external forcing agents in a millennium-scale
transient climate simulation with the fast version of LASG IAP Flexible
Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS-gl) developed in the
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP).
The model presents a reasonable performance in comparison with
reconstructions of surface temperature. Differentiated from significant
changes in the 20th century at the global scale, changes during the
natural-forcing-dominant period are mainly manifested in the Northern
Hemisphere. Seasonally, modeled significant changes are more pronounced
during the wintertime at higher latitudes. This may be a manifestation
of polar amplification associated with sea-ice-temperature positive
feedback. The climate responses to total external forcings can explain
about half of the climate variance during the whole millennium period,
especially at decadal timescales. Surface temperature in the Antarctic
shows heterogeneous and insignificant changes during the preindustrial
period and the climate response to external forcings is undetectable due
to the strong internal variability. The model response to specified
external forcings is modulated by cloud radiative forcing (CRF). The CRF
acts against the fluctuations of external forcings. Effects of clouds
are manifested in shortwave radiation by changes in cloud water during
the natural-forcing-dominant period, but mainly in longwave radiation by
a decrease in cloud amount in the anthropogenic-forcing-dominant period.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00376-013-2178-0},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AdAtS..30..699Z},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ACP....13.4815S,
author = {{Steen-Larsen}, H.~C. and {Johnsen}, S.~J. and {Masson-Delmotte}, V. and
{Stenni}, B. and {Risi}, C. and {Sodemann}, H. and {Balslev-Clausen}, D. and
{Blunier}, T. and {Dahl-Jensen}, D. and {Elleh{\o}j}, M.~D. and
{Falourd}, S. and {Grindsted}, A. and {Gkinis}, V. and {Jouzel}, J. and
{Popp}, T. and {Sheldon}, S. and {Simonsen}, S.~B. and {Sjolte}, J. and
{Steffensen}, J.~P. and {Sperlich}, P. and {Sveinbj{\"o}rnsd{\'o}ttir}, A.~E. and
{Vinther}, B.~M. and {White}, J.~W.~C.},
title = {{Continuous monitoring of summer surface water vapor isotopic composition above the Greenland Ice Sheet}},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry \& Physics},
year = 2013,
month = may,
volume = 13,
pages = {4815-4828},
abstract = {{We present here surface water vapor isotopic measurements conducted from
June to August 2010 at the NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Drilling
Project) camp, NW Greenland (77.45{\deg} N, 51.05{\deg} W, 2484 m a.s.l.).
Measurements were conducted at 9 different heights from 0.1 m to 13.5 m
above the snow surface using two different types of cavity-enhanced
near-infrared absorption spectroscopy analyzers. For each instrument
specific protocols were developed for calibration and drift corrections.
The inter-comparison of corrected results from different instruments
reveals excellent reproducibility, stability, and precision with a
standard deviations of \~{} 0.23{\permil} for {$\delta$}$^{18}$O and \~{}
1.4{\permil} for {$\delta$}D. Diurnal and intraseasonal variations show
strong relationships between changes in local surface humidity and water
vapor isotopic composition, and with local and synoptic weather
conditions. This variability probably results from the interplay between
local moisture fluxes, linked with firn-air exchanges, boundary layer
dynamics, and large-scale moisture advection. Particularly remarkable
are several episodes characterized by high ({\gt} 40{\permil}) surface
water vapor deuterium excess. Air mass back-trajectory calculations from
atmospheric analyses and water tagging in the LMDZiso (Laboratory of
Meteorology Dynamics Zoom-isotopic) atmospheric model reveal that these
events are associated with predominant Arctic air mass origin. The
analysis suggests that high deuterium excess levels are a result of
strong kinetic fractionation during evaporation at the sea-ice margin.
}},
doi = {10.5194/acp-13-4815-2013},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ACP....13.4815S},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ACP....13.3245S,
author = {{Stier}, P. and {Schutgens}, N.~A.~J. and {Bellouin}, N. and
{Bian}, H. and {Boucher}, O. and {Chin}, M. and {Ghan}, S. and
{Huneeus}, N. and {Kinne}, S. and {Lin}, G. and {Ma}, X. and
{Myhre}, G. and {Penner}, J.~E. and {Randles}, C.~A. and {Samset}, B. and
{Schulz}, M. and {Takemura}, T. and {Yu}, F. and {Yu}, H. and
{Zhou}, C.},
title = {{Host model uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates: results from the AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study}},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry \& Physics},
year = 2013,
month = mar,
volume = 13,
pages = {3245-3270},
abstract = {{Simulated multi-model ''diversity'' in aerosol direct radiative forcing
estimates is often perceived as a measure of aerosol uncertainty.
However, current models used for aerosol radiative forcing calculations
vary considerably in model components relevant for forcing calculations
and the associated ''host-model uncertainties'' are generally convoluted
with the actual aerosol uncertainty. In this AeroCom Prescribed
intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model
uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of
identical aerosol radiative properties in twelve participating models.
Even with prescribed aerosol radiative properties,
simulated clear-sky and all-sky aerosol radiative forcings show
significant diversity. For a purely scattering case with globally
constant optical depth of 0.2, the global-mean all-sky top-of-atmosphere
radiative forcing is -4.47 Wm$^{-2}$ and the inter-model standard
deviation is 0.55 Wm$^{-2}$, corresponding to a relative standard
deviation of 12\%. For a case with partially absorbing aerosol with an
aerosol optical depth of 0.2 and single scattering albedo of 0.8, the
forcing changes to 1.04 Wm$^{-2}$, and the standard deviation
increases to 1.01 W$^{-2}$, corresponding to a significant
relative standard deviation of 97\%. However, the top-of-atmosphere
forcing variability owing to absorption (subtracting the scattering case
from the case with scattering and absorption) is low, with absolute
(relative) standard deviations of 0.45 Wm$^{-2}$ (8\%) clear-sky
and 0.62 Wm$^{-2}$ (11\%) all-sky.
Scaling the forcing
standard deviation for a purely scattering case to match the sulfate
radiative forcing in the AeroCom Direct Effect experiment demonstrates
that host model uncertainties could explain about 36\% of the overall
sulfate forcing diversity of 0.11 Wm$^{-2}$ in the AeroCom Direct
Radiative Effect experiment.
Host model errors in aerosol
radiative forcing are largest in regions of uncertain host model
components, such as stratocumulus cloud decks or areas with poorly
constrained surface albedos, such as sea ice. Our results demonstrate
that host model uncertainties are an important component of aerosol
forcing uncertainty that require further attention.
}},
doi = {10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ACP....13.3245S},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ClDy...40..531K,
author = {{K{\"o}rper}, J. and {H{\"o}schel}, I. and {Lowe}, J.~A. and
{Hewitt}, C.~D. and {Salas y Melia}, D. and {Roeckner}, E. and
{Huebener}, H. and {Royer}, J.-F. and {Dufresne}, J.-L. and
{Pardaens}, A. and {Giorgetta}, M.~A. and {Sanderson}, M.~G. and
{Otter{\aa}}, O.~H. and {Tjiputra}, J. and {Denvil}, S.},
title = {{The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes}},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate, Projections, Stabilization, Sea level rise, Sea ice, Multi-model, ENSEMBLES, CMIP5, Mitigation},
year = 2013,
month = feb,
volume = 40,
pages = {531-550},
abstract = {{With an increasing political focus on limiting global warming to less
than 2 {\deg}C above pre-industrial levels it is vital to understand the
consequences of these targets on key parts of the climate system. Here,
we focus on changes in sea level and sea ice, comparing twenty-first
century projections with increased greenhouse gas concentrations (using
the mid-range IPCC A1B emissions scenario) with those under a mitigation
scenario with large reductions in emissions (the E1 scenario). At the
end of the twenty-first century, the global mean steric sea level rise
is reduced by about a third in the mitigation scenario compared with the
A1B scenario. Changes in surface air temperature are found to be poorly
correlated with steric sea level changes. While the projected decreases
in sea ice extent during the first half of the twenty-first century are
independent of the season or scenario, especially in the Arctic, the
seasonal cycle of sea ice extent is amplified. By the end of the century
the Arctic becomes sea ice free in September in the A1B scenario in most
models. In the mitigation scenario the ice does not disappear in the
majority of models, but is reduced by 42 \% of the present September
extent. Results for Antarctic sea ice changes reveal large initial
biases in the models and a significant correlation between projected
changes and the initial extent. This latter result highlights the
necessity for further refinements in Antarctic sea ice modelling for
more reliable projections of future sea ice.
}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...40..531K},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2013ACP....13.1607N,
author = {{Noone}, D. and {Risi}, C. and {Bailey}, A. and {Berkelhammer}, M. and
{Brown}, D.~P. and {Buenning}, N. and {Gregory}, S. and {Nusbaumer}, J. and
{Schneider}, D. and {Sykes}, J. and {Vanderwende}, B. and {Wong}, J. and
{Meillier}, Y. and {Wolfe}, D.},
title = {{Determining water sources in the boundary layer from tall tower profiles of water vapor and surface water isotope ratios after a snowstorm in Colorado}},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry \& Physics},
year = 2013,
month = feb,
volume = 13,
pages = {1607-1623},
abstract = {{The D/H isotope ratio is used to attribute boundary layer humidity
changes to the set of contributing fluxes for a case following a
snowstorm in which a snow pack of about 10 cm vanished. Profiles of
H$_{2}$O and CO$_{2}$ mixing ratio, D/H isotope ratio, and
several thermodynamic properties were measured from the surface to 300 m
every 15 min during four winter days near Boulder, Colorado. Coeval
analysis of the D/H ratios and CO$_{2}$ concentrations find these
two variables to be complementary with the former being sensitive to
daytime surface fluxes and the latter particularly indicative of
nocturnal surface sources. Together they capture evidence for strong
vertical mixing during the day, weaker mixing by turbulent bursts and
low level jets within the nocturnal stable boundary layer during the
night, and frost formation in the morning. The profiles are generally
not well described with a gradient mixing line analysis because D/H
ratios of the end members (i.e., surface fluxes and the free
troposphere) evolve throughout the day which leads to large
uncertainties in the estimate of the D/H ratio of surface water flux. A
mass balance model is constructed for the snow pack, and constrained
with observations to provide an optimal estimate of the partitioning of
the surface water flux into contributions from sublimation, evaporation
of melt water in the snow and evaporation from ponds. Results show that
while vapor measurements are important in constraining surface fluxes,
measurements of the source reservoirs (soil water, snow pack and
standing liquid) offer stronger constraint on the surface water balance.
Measurements of surface water are therefore essential in developing
observational programs that seek to use isotopic data for flux
attribution.
}},
doi = {10.5194/acp-13-1607-2013},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ACP....13.1607N},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
