lmd_Boucher2013_abstracts.html

2013 .

J. Peñuelas, B. Poulter, J. Sardans, P. Ciais, M. van der Velde, L. Bopp, O. Boucher, Y. Godderis, P. Hinsinger, J. Llusia, E. Nardin, S. Vicca, M. Obersteiner, and I. A. Janssens. Human-induced nitrogen-phosphorus imbalances alter natural and managed ecosystems across the globe. Nature Communications, 4:2934, December 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

The availability of carbon from rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and of nitrogen from various human-induced inputs to ecosystems is continuously increasing; however, these increases are not paralleled by a similar increase in phosphorus inputs. The inexorable change in the stoichiometry of carbon and nitrogen relative to phosphorus has no equivalent in Earths history. Here we report the profound and yet uncertain consequences of the human imprint on the phosphorus cycle and nitrogen:phosphorus stoichiometry for the structure, functioning and diversity of terrestrial and aquatic organisms and ecosystems. A mass balance approach is used to show that limited phosphorus and nitrogen availability are likely to jointly reduce future carbon storage by natural ecosystems during this century. Further, if phosphorus fertilizers cannot be made increasingly accessible, the crop yields projections of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment imply an increase of the nutrient deficit in developing regions.

K. Alterskjær, J. E. Kristjánsson, O. Boucher, H. Muri, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, M. Schulz, and C. Timmreck. Sea-salt injections into the low-latitude marine boundary layer: The transient response in three Earth system models. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 118:12195, November 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

proposed mechanisms for counteracting global warming through solar radiation management is the deliberate injection of sea salt acting via marine cloud brightening and the direct effect of sea-salt aerosols. In this study, we show results from multidecadal simulations of such sea-salt climate engineering (SSCE) on top of the RCP4.5 emission scenario using three Earth system models. As in the proposed ”G3” experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, SSCE is designed to keep the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing at the 2020 level for 50 years. SSCE is then turned off and the models run for another 20 years, enabling an investigation of the abrupt warming associated with a termination of climate engineering (”termination effect”). As in former idealized studies, the climate engineering in all three models leads to a significant suppression of evaporation from low-latitude oceans and reduced precipitation over low-latitude oceans as well as in the storm-track regions. Unlike those studies, however, we find in all models enhanced evaporation, cloud formation, and precipitation over low-latitude land regions. This is a response to the localized cooling over the low-latitude oceans imposed by the SSCE design. As a result, the models obtain reduced aridity in many low-latitude land regions as well as in southern Europe. Terminating the SSCE leads to a rapid near-surface temperature increase, which, in the Arctic, exceeds 2 K in all three models within 20 years after SSCE has ceased. In the same period September Arctic sea ice cover shrinks by over 25%.

B. Kravitz, P. M. Forster, A. Jones, A. Robock, K. Alterskjær, O. Boucher, A. K. L. Jenkins, H. Korhonen, J. E. Kristjánsson, H. Muri, U. Niemeier, A.-I. Partanen, P. J. Rasch, H. Wang, and S. Watanabe. Sea spray geoengineering experiments in the geoengineering model intercomparison project (GeoMIP): Experimental design and preliminary results. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 118:11175, October 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

cloud brightening through sea spray injection has been proposed as a method of temporarily alleviating some of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, as part of a set of technologies called geoengineering. We outline here a proposal for three coordinated climate modeling experiments to test aspects of sea spray geoengineering, to be conducted under the auspices of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The first, highly idealized, experiment (G1ocean-albedo) involves a uniform increase in ocean albedo to offset an instantaneous quadrupling of CO₂ concentrations from preindustrial levels. Results from a single climate model show an increased land-sea temperature contrast, Arctic warming, and large shifts in annual mean precipitation patterns. The second experiment (G4cdnc) involves increasing cloud droplet number concentration in all low-level marine clouds to offset some of the radiative forcing of an RCP4.5 scenario. This experiment will test the robustness of models in simulating geographically heterogeneous radiative flux changes and their effects on climate. The third experiment (G4sea-salt) involves injection of sea spray aerosols into the marine boundary layer between 30degS and 30degN to offset 2 W m^-2 of the effective radiative forcing of an RCP4.5 scenario. A single model study shows that the induced effective radiative forcing is largely confined to the latitudes in which injection occurs. In this single model simulation, the forcing due to aerosol-radiation interactions is stronger than the forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions.

S. Tilmes, J. Fasullo, J.-F. Lamarque, D. R. Marsh, M. Mills, K. Alterskjær, H. Muri, J. E. Kristjánsson, O. Boucher, M. Schulz, J. N. S. Cole, C. L. Curry, A. Jones, J. Haywood, P. J. Irvine, D. Ji, J. C. Moore, D. B. Karam, B. Kravitz, P. J. Rasch, B. Singh, J.-H. Yoon, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, A. Robock, S. Yang, and S. Watanabe. The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 118:11036, October 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

The hydrological impact of enhancing Earth's albedo by solar radiation management is investigated using simulations from 12 Earth System models contributing to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). We contrast an idealized experiment, G1, where the global mean radiative forcing is kept at preindustrial conditions by reducing insolation while the CO₂ concentration is quadrupled to a 4×CO₂ experiment. The reduction of evapotranspiration over land with instantaneously increasing CO₂ concentrations in both experiments largely contributes to an initial reduction in evaporation. A warming surface associated with the transient adjustment in 4×CO₂ generates an increase of global precipitation by around 6.9% with large zonal and regional changes in both directions, including a precipitation increase of 10% over Asia and a reduction of 7% for the North American summer monsoon. Reduced global evaporation persists in G1 with temperatures close to preindustrial conditions. Global precipitation is reduced by around 4.5%, and significant reductions occur over monsoonal land regions: East Asia (6%), South Africa (5%), North America (7%), and South America (6%). The general precipitation performance in models is discussed in comparison to observations. In contrast to the 4×CO₂ experiment, where the frequency of months with heavy precipitation intensity is increased by over 50% in comparison to the control, a reduction of up to 20% is simulated in G1. These changes in precipitation in both total amount and frequency of extremes point to a considerable weakening of the hydrological cycle in a geoengineered world.

A. Jones, J. M. Haywood, K. Alterskjær, O. Boucher, J. N. S. Cole, C. L. Curry, P. J. Irvine, D. Ji, B. Kravitz, J. Egill-Kristjánsson, J. C. Moore, U. Niemeier, A. Robock, H. Schmidt, B. Singh, S. Tilmes, S. Watanabe, and J.-H. Yoon. The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 118:9743-9752, September 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO₂ concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes.

B. Kravitz, K. Caldeira, O. Boucher, A. Robock, P. J. Rasch, K. AlterskjæR, D. B. Karam, J. N. S. Cole, C. L. Curry, J. M. Haywood, P. J. Irvine, D. Ji, A. Jones, J. E. KristjáNsson, D. J. Lunt, J. C. Moore, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, M. Schulz, B. Singh, S. Tilmes, S. Watanabe, S. Yang, and J.-H. Yoon. Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 118:8320-8332, August 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

geoengineeringdeliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earthhas been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO₂ from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO₂ concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO₂ levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2 mm day^-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO₂ fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO₂ world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

N. Huneeus, O. Boucher, and F. Chevallier. Atmospheric inversion of SO₂ and primary aerosol emissions for the year 2010. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 13:6555-6573, July 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

Natural and anthropogenic emissions of primary aerosols and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) are estimated for the year 2010 by assimilating daily total and fine mode aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument into a global aerosol model of intermediate complexity. The system adjusts monthly emission fluxes over a set of predefined regions tiling the globe. The resulting aerosol emissions improve the model performance, as measured from usual skill scores, both against the assimilated observations and a set of independent ground-based measurements. The estimated emission fluxes are 67 Tg S yr^-1 for SO₂, 12 Tg yr^-1 for black carbon (BC), 87 Tg yr^-1 for particulate organic matter (POM), 17 000 Tg yr^-1 for sea salt (SS, estimated at 80 % relative humidity) and 1206 Tg yr^-1 for desert dust (DD). They represent a difference of +53, +73, +72, +1 and -8%, respectively, with respect to the first guess (FG) values. Constant errors throughout the regions and the year were assigned to the a priori emissions. The analysis errors are reduced with respect to the a priori ones for all species and throughout the year, they vary between 3 and 18% for SO₂, 1 and 130% for biomass burning, 21 and 90 % for fossil fuel, 1 and 200% for DD and 1 and 5% for SS. The maximum errors on the global-yearly scale for the estimated fluxes (considering temporal error dependence) are 3% for SO₂, 14% for BC, 11% for POM, 14% for DD and 2% for SS. These values represent a decrease as compared to the global-yearly errors from the FG of 7% for SO₂, 40% for BC, 55% for POM, 81% for DD and 300% for SS. The largest error reduction, both monthly and yearly, is observed for SS and the smallest one for SO₂. The sensitivity and robustness of the inversion system to the choice of the first guess emission inventory is investigated by using different combinations of inventories for industrial, fossil fuel and biomass burning sources. The initial difference in the emissions between the various set-ups is reduced after the inversion. Furthermore, at the global scale, the inversion is sensitive to the choice of the BB (biomass burning) inventory and not so much to the industrial and fossil fuel inventory. At the regional scale, however, the choice of the industrial and fossil fuel inventory can make a difference. The estimated baseline emission fluxes for SO₂, BC and POM are within the estimated uncertainties of the four experiments. The resulting emissions were compared against projected emissions for the year 2010 for SO₂, BC and POM. The new estimate presents larger emissions than the projections for all three species, with larger differences for SO₂ than POM and BC. These projected SO₂ emissions are outside the uncertainties of the estimated emission inventories.

A. Otto, F. E. L. Otto, O. Boucher, J. Church, G. Hegerl, P. M. Forster, N. P. Gillett, J. Gregory, G. C. Johnson, R. Knutti, N. Lewis, U. Lohmann, J. Marotzke, G. Myhre, D. Shindell, B. Stevens, and M. R. Allen. Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geoscience, 6:415-416, June 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

M. Ménégoz, G. Krinner, Y. Balkanski, A. Cozic, O. Boucher, and P. Ciais. Boreal and temperate snow cover variations induced by black carbon emissions in the middle of the 21st century. The Cryosphere, 7:537-554, March 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

We used a coupled climate-chemistry model to quantify the impacts of aerosols on snow cover north of 30deg N both for the present-day and for the middle of the 21st century. Black carbon (BC) deposition over continents induces a reduction in the mean number of days with snow at the surface (MNDWS) that ranges from 0 to 10 days over large areas of Eurasia and Northern America for the present-day relative to the pre-industrial period. This is mainly due to BC deposition during the spring, a period of the year when the remaining of snow accumulated during the winter is exposed to both strong solar radiation and a large amount of aerosol deposition induced themselves by a high level of transport of particles from polluted areas. North of 30deg N, this deposition flux represents 222 Gg BC month^-1 on average from April to June in our simulation. A large reduction in BC emissions is expected in the future in all of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In particular, considering the RCP8.5 in our simulation leads to a decrease in the spring BC deposition down to 110 Gg month^-1 in the 2050s. However, despite the reduction of the aerosol impact on snow, the MNDWS is strongly reduced by 2050, with a decrease ranging from 10 to 100 days from present-day values over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This reduction is essentially due to temperature increase, which is quite strong in the RCP8.5 scenario in the absence of climate mitigation policies. Moreover, the projected sea-ice retreat in the next decades will open new routes for shipping in the Arctic. However, a large increase in shipping emissions in the Arctic by the mid-21st century does not lead to significant changes of BC deposition over snow-covered areas in our simulation. Therefore, the MNDWS is clearly not affected through snow darkening effects associated with these Arctic ship emissions. In an experiment without nudging toward atmospheric reanalyses, we simulated however some changes of the MNDWS considering such aerosol ship emissions. These changes are generally not statistically significant in boreal continents, except in Quebec and in the West Siberian plains, where they range between -5 and -10 days. They are induced both by radiative forcings of the aerosols when they are in the snow and in the atmosphere, and by all the atmospheric feedbacks. These experiments do not take into account the feedbacks induced by the interactions between ocean and atmosphere as they were conducted with prescribed sea surface temperatures. Climate change by the mid-21st century could also cause biomass burning activity (forest fires) to become more intense and occur earlier in the season. In an idealised scenario in which forest fires are 50% stronger and occur 2 weeks earlier and later than at present, we simulated an increase in spring BC deposition of 21 Gg BC month^-1 over continents located north of 30deg N. This BC deposition does not impact directly the snow cover through snow darkening effects. However, in an experiment considering all the aerosol forcings and atmospheric feedbacks, except those induced by the ocean-atmosphere interactions, enhanced fire activity induces a significant decrease of the MNDWS reaching a dozen of days in Quebec and in Eastern Siberia.

P. Stier, N. A. J. Schutgens, N. Bellouin, H. Bian, O. Boucher, M. Chin, S. Ghan, N. Huneeus, S. Kinne, G. Lin, X. Ma, G. Myhre, J. E. Penner, C. A. Randles, B. Samset, M. Schulz, T. Takemura, F. Yu, H. Yu, and C. Zhou. Host model uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates: results from the AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 13:3245-3270, March 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

Simulated multi-model ”diversity” in aerosol direct radiative forcing estimates is often perceived as a measure of aerosol uncertainty. However, current models used for aerosol radiative forcing calculations vary considerably in model components relevant for forcing calculations and the associated ”host-model uncertainties” are generally convoluted with the actual aerosol uncertainty. In this AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of identical aerosol radiative properties in twelve participating models. <BR /><BR /> Even with prescribed aerosol radiative properties, simulated clear-sky and all-sky aerosol radiative forcings show significant diversity. For a purely scattering case with globally constant optical depth of 0.2, the global-mean all-sky top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is -4.47 Wm^-2 and the inter-model standard deviation is 0.55 Wm^-2, corresponding to a relative standard deviation of 12%. For a case with partially absorbing aerosol with an aerosol optical depth of 0.2 and single scattering albedo of 0.8, the forcing changes to 1.04 Wm^-2, and the standard deviation increases to 1.01 W^-2, corresponding to a significant relative standard deviation of 97%. However, the top-of-atmosphere forcing variability owing to absorption (subtracting the scattering case from the case with scattering and absorption) is low, with absolute (relative) standard deviations of 0.45 Wm^-2 (8%) clear-sky and 0.62 Wm^-2 (11%) all-sky. <BR /><BR /> Scaling the forcing standard deviation for a purely scattering case to match the sulfate radiative forcing in the AeroCom Direct Effect experiment demonstrates that host model uncertainties could explain about 36% of the overall sulfate forcing diversity of 0.11 Wm^-2 in the AeroCom Direct Radiative Effect experiment. <BR /><BR /> Host model errors in aerosol radiative forcing are largest in regions of uncertain host model components, such as stratocumulus cloud decks or areas with poorly constrained surface albedos, such as sea ice. Our results demonstrate that host model uncertainties are an important component of aerosol forcing uncertainty that require further attention.

M. T. Woodhouse, G. W. Mann, K. S. Carslaw, and O. Boucher. Sensitivity of cloud condensation nuclei to regional changes in dimethyl-sulphide emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 13:2723-2733, March 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

The atmospheric oxidation of dimethyl-sulphide (DMS) derived from marine phytoplankton is a significant source of marine sulphate aerosol. DMS has been proposed to regulate climate via changes in cloud properties, though recent studies have shown that present-day global cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations have only a weak dependence on the total emission flux of DMS. Here, we use a global aerosol microphysics model to examine how efficiently CCN are produced when DMS emissions are changed in different marine regions. We find that global CCN production per unit mass of sulphur emitted varies by more than a factor of 20 depending on where the change in oceanic DMS emission flux is applied. The variation in CCN production efficiency depends upon where CCN production processes (DMS oxidation, SO₂ oxidation, nucleation and growth) are most efficient and removal processes (deposition) least efficient. The analysis shows that the production of aerosol sulphate through aqueous-phase oxidation of SO₂ limits the amount of H₂SO₄ available for nucleation and condensational growth and therefore suppresses CCN formation, leading to the weak response of CCN to changes in DMS emission. Our results show that past and future changes in the spatial distribution of DMS emissions (through changes in the phytoplankton population or wind speed patterns) could exert a stronger control on climate than net increases in biological productivity.

C. K. Folland, A. W. Colman, D. M. Smith, O. Boucher, D. E. Parker, and J.-P. Vernier. High predictive skill of global surface temperature a year ahead. Geophysical Research Letters, 40:761-767, February 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

We discuss 13 real-time forecasts of global annual-mean surface temperature issued by the United Kingdom Met Office for 1 year ahead for 2000-2012. These involve statistical, and since 2008, initialized dynamical forecasts using the Met Office DePreSys system. For the period when the statistical forecast system changed little, 2000-2010, issued forecasts had a high correlation of 0.74 with observations and a root mean square error of 0.07degC. However, the HadCRUT data sets against which issued forecasts were verified were biased slightly cold, especially from 2004, because of data gaps in the strongly warming Arctic. This observational cold bias was mainly responsible for a statistically significant warm bias in the 2000-2010 forecasts of 0.06degC. Climate forcing data sets used in the statistical method, and verification data, have recently been modified, increasing hindcast correlation skill to 0.80 with no significant bias. Dynamical hindcasts for 2000-2011 have a similar correlation skill of 0.78 and skillfully hindcast annual mean spatial global surface temperature patterns. Such skill indicates that we have a good understanding of the main factors influencing global mean surface temperature.

N. Bellouin, J. Quaas, J.-J. Morcrette, and O. Boucher. Estimates of aerosol radiative forcing from the MACC re-analysis. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 13:2045-2062, February 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) provides an aerosol re-analysis starting from year 2003 for the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project. The re-analysis assimilates total aerosol optical depth retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to correct for model departures from observed aerosols. The re-analysis therefore combines satellite retrievals with the full spatial coverage of a numerical model. Re-analysed products are used here to estimate the shortwave direct and first indirect radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols over the period 2003-2010, using methods previously applied to satellite retrievals of aerosols and clouds. The best estimate of globally-averaged, all-sky direct radiative forcing is -0.7 0.3 Wm^-2. The standard deviation is obtained by a Monte-Carlo analysis of uncertainties, which accounts for uncertainties in the aerosol anthropogenic fraction, aerosol absorption, and cloudy-sky effects. Further accounting for differences between the present-day natural and pre-industrial aerosols provides a direct radiative forcing estimate of -0.4 0.3 Wm^-2. The best estimate of globally-averaged, all-sky first indirect radiative forcing is -0.6 0.4 Wm^-2. Its standard deviation accounts for uncertainties in the aerosol anthropogenic fraction, and in cloud albedo and cloud droplet number concentration susceptibilities to aerosol changes. The distribution of first indirect radiative forcing is asymmetric and is bounded by -0.1 and -2.0 Wm^-2. In order to decrease uncertainty ranges, better observational constraints on aerosol absorption and sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentrations to aerosol changes are required.

O. Boucher and J. Quaas. Water vapour affects both rain and aerosol optical depth. Nature Geoscience, 6:4-5, January 2013. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]