lmd_Risi2014_abstracts.html

2014 .

P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, B. Vinther, P. Yiou, R. Vautard, and K. Yoshimura. Characterizing atmospheric circulation signals in Greenland ice cores: insights from a weather regime approach. Climate Dynamics, 43:2585-2605, November 2014. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

Greenland ice cores offer seasonal to annual records of δ¹⁸O, a proxy for precipitation-weighted temperature, over the last few centuries to millennia. Here, we investigate the regional footprints of the North Atlantic weather regimes on Greenland isotope and climate variability, using a compilation of 22 different shallow ice-cores and the atmospheric pressure conditions from the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR). As a first step we have verified that the leading modes of winter and annual δ¹⁸O are well correlated with oceanic (Atlantic multidecadal oscillation) and atmospheric [North Atlantic oscillation (NAO)] indices respectively, and also marginally with external forcings, thus confirming earlier studies. The link between weather regimes and Greenland precipitation, precipitation-weighted temperature and δ¹⁸O is further explored by using an isotope simulation from the LMDZ-iso model, where the 3-dimensional wind fields are nudged to those of 20CR. In winter, the NAO+ and NAO- regimes in LMDZ-iso produce the largest isotopic changes over the entire Greenland region, with maximum anomalies in the South. Likewise, the Scandinavian blocking and the Atlantic ridge also show remarkable imprints on isotopic composition over the region. To assess the robustness and model dependency of our findings, a second isotope simulation from the isotopic model is also explored. The percentage of Greenland δ¹⁸O variance explained by the ensemble of weather regimes is increased by a factor near two in both LMDZ-iso and IsoGSM when compared to the contribution of the NAO index only. Similarly, weather regimes provide a net gain in the δ¹⁸O variance explained of similar magnitude for the whole set of ice core records. Greenland δ¹⁸O also appears to be locally affected by the low-frequency variations in the centres of action of the weather regimes, with clearer imprints in the LMDZ-iso simulation. This study opens the possibility for reconstructing past changes in the frequencies of occurrence of the weather regimes, which would rely on the sensitive regions identified here, and the use of additional proxies over the North Atlantic region.

V. Gryazin, C. Risi, J. Jouzel, N. Kurita, J. Worden, C. Frankenberg, V. Bastrikov, K. Gribanov, and O. Stukova. To what extent could water isotopic measurements help us understand model biases in the water cycle over Western Siberia. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 14:9807-9830, September 2014. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

We evaluate the isotopic composition of water vapor and precipitation simulated by the LMDZ (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Zoom) GCM (General Circulation Model) over Siberia using several data sets: TES (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) and GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) satellite observations of tropospheric water vapor, GNIP (Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation) and SNIP (Siberian Network for Isotopes in Precipitation) precipitation networks, and daily, in situ measurements of water vapor and precipitation at the Kourovka site in Western Siberia. LMDZ captures the spatial, seasonal and daily variations reasonably well, but it underestimates humidity (q) in summer and overestimates δD in the vapor and precipitation in all seasons. The performance of LMDZ is put in the context of other isotopic models from the SWING2 (Stable Water Intercomparison Group phase 2) models. There is significant spread among models in the simulation of δD, and of the δD-q relationship. This confirms that δD brings additional information compared to q only. We specifically investigate the added value of water isotopic measurements to interpret the warm and dry bias featured by most GCMs over mid and high latitude continents in summer. The analysis of the slopes in δD-q diagrams and of processes controlling δD and q variations suggests that the cause of the dry bias could be either a problem in the large-scale advection transporting too much dry and warm air from the south, or too strong boundary-layer mixing. However, δD-q diagrams using the available data do not tell the full story. Additional measurements would be needed, or a more sophisticated theoretical framework would need to be developed.

M. Pommier, J.-L. Lacour, C. Risi, F. M. Bréon, C. Clerbaux, P.-F. Coheur, K. Gribanov, D. Hurtmans, J. Jouzel, and V. Zakharov. Observation of tropospheric δD by IASI over western Siberia: comparison with a general circulation model. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 7:1581-1595, June 2014. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

This study presents the joint H₂¹⁶O and HDO retrieval from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) spectra over western Siberia. IASI is an instrument on board the MetOp-A European satellite. The global coverage of the instrument and the good signal-to-noise ratio allow us to provide information on δD over this remote region. We show that IASI measurements may be used to estimate integrated δD between the surface and 3 km altitude or from 1 to 5 km depending on the thermal contrast, with observational errors lower than 4% and 7%, respectively. The retrieved data are compared to simulations from an isotopic general circulation model, LMDZ-iso for 2011. The satellite measurements and the model agree well and they reproduce well the seasonal and day-to-day variations for δD, presenting a good correlation (r up to 0.8 with the smoothed data in summer). The IASI-based retrievals also show the seasonal variation of the specific humidity in both altitude ranges.

M. Butzin, M. Werner, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, C. Frankenberg, K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, and V. I. Zakharov. Variations of oxygen-18 in West Siberian precipitation during the last 50 years. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 14:5853-5869, June 2014. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

Global warming is associated with large increases in surface air temperature in Siberia. Here, we apply the isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso to explore the potential of water isotope measurements at a recently opened monitoring station in Kourovka (57.04deg N, 59.55deg E) in order to successfully trace climate change in western Siberia. Our model is constrained to atmospheric reanalysis fields for the period 1957-2013 to facilitate the comparison with observations of δD in total column water vapour from the GOSAT satellite, and with precipitation δ¹⁸O measurements from 15 Russian stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. The model captures the observed Russian climate within reasonable error margins, and displays the observed isotopic gradients associated with increasing continentality and decreasing meridional temperatures. The model also reproduces the observed seasonal cycle of δ¹⁸O, which parallels the seasonal cycle of temperature and ranges from -25 in winter to -5 in summer. Investigating West Siberian climate and precipitation δ¹⁸O variability during the last 50 years, we find long-term increasing trends in temperature and δ¹⁸O, while precipitation trends are uncertain. During the last 50 years, winter temperatures have increased by 1.7 degC. The simulated long-term increase of precipitation δ¹⁸O is at the detection limit (1 per 50 years) but significant. West Siberian climate is characterized by strong interannual variability, which in winter is strongly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In winter, regional temperature is the predominant factor controlling δ¹⁸O variations on interannual to decadal timescales with a slope of about 0.5 degC^-1. In summer, the interannual variability of δ¹⁸O can be attributed to short-term, regional-scale processes such as evaporation and convective precipitation. This finding suggests that precipitation δ¹⁸O has the potential to reveal hydrometeorological regime shifts in western Siberia which are otherwise difficult to identify. Focusing on Kourovka, the simulated evolution of temperature, δ¹⁸O and, to a smaller extent, precipitation during the last 50 years is synchronous with model results averaged over all of western Siberia, suggesting that this site will be representative to monitor future isotopic changes in the entire region.

G. Tremoy, F. Vimeux, S. Soumana, I. Souley, C. Risi, G. Favreau, and M. Oï. Clustering mesoscale convective systems with laser-based water vapor δ¹⁸O monitoring in Niamey (Niger). Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 119:5079-5103, May 2014. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

The isotopic composition of surface water vapor (δ_v) has been measured continuously in Niamey along with the isotopic composition of event-based precipitation (δ_p) since 2010. We investigate the evolution of water vapor and precipitation isotope ratios during rain events of the 2010, 2011, and 2012 monsoon periods. We establish a classification of rain systems into three types based on the δ_v temporal evolution. We find that 51% of rain events (class A) exhibit a sharp decrease in δ¹⁸O_v in phase with the surface air temperature drop, leading to a depletion of water vapor by -1.9 on average during rainfall. Twenty-nine percent of rain events (class B) show a similar decrease in δ¹⁸O_v in phase with the temperature drop but are characterized by a progressive enrichment of the vapor in the stratiform region, resulting in a depletion of water vapor by -1.2 on average during rainfall. The last 20% of the rain events (class C) are associated with a progressive increase in δ¹⁸O_v during rainfall (+0.8). We also examine the temporal evolution of water vapor deuterium excess (d_v) which shows a sharp increase as δ¹⁸O_v decreases, followed by a progressive decrease in the stratiform part for classes A and B. Using a basic box model, we examine for each class the respective roles that mesoscale subsidence and rain evaporation play on the evolution of δ¹⁸O_v. We show that those two processes are dominant for class A, whereas other processes may exert a major role on δ¹⁸O_v for classes B and C.

J.-L. Bonne, V. Masson-Delmotte, O. Cattani, M. Delmotte, C. Risi, H. Sodemann, and H. C. Steen-Larsen. The isotopic composition of water vapour and precipitation in Ivittuut, southern Greenland. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 14:4419-4439, May 2014. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

Since September 2011, a wavelength-scanned cavity ring-down spectroscopy analyser has been remotely operated in Ivittuut, southern Greenland, providing the first record of surface water vapour isotopic composition based on continuous measurements in South Greenland and the first record including the winter season in Greenland. The comparison of vapour data with measurements of precipitation isotopic composition suggest an equilibrium between surface vapour and precipitation. <BR /><BR /> δ¹⁸O and deuterium excess are generally anti-correlated and show important seasonal variations, with respective amplitudes of ˜10 and ˜20, as well as large synoptic variations. The data depict small summer diurnal variations. At the seasonal scale, δ¹⁸O has a minimum in November-December and a maximum in June-July, while deuterium excess has a minimum in May-June and a maximum in November. The approach of low-pressure systems towards South Greenland leads to δ¹⁸O increase (typically +5) and deuterium excess decrease (typically -15). <BR /><BR /> Seasonal and synoptic variations coincide with shifts in the moisture sources, estimated using a quantitative moisture source diagnostic based on a Lagrangian back-trajectory model. The atmospheric general circulation model LMDZiso correctly captures the seasonal and synoptic variability of δ¹⁸O, but does not capture the observed magnitude of deuterium excess variability. <BR /><BR /> Covariations of water vapour isotopic composition with local and moisture source meteorological parameters have been evaluated. δ¹⁸O is strongly correlated with the logarithm of local surface humidity, consistent with Rayleigh distillation processes, and with local surface air temperature, associated with a slope of ˜0.4 degC^-1. Deuterium excess correlates with local surface relative humidity as well as surface relative humidity from the dominant moisture source area located in the North Atlantic, south of Greenland and Iceland.

Z. Liu, K. Yoshimura, G. J. Bowen, N. H. Buenning, C. Risi, J. M. Welker, and F. Yuan. Paired oxygen isotope records reveal modern North American atmospheric dynamics during the Holocene. Nature Communications, 5:3701, April 2014. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

The Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection has a strong influence on North American climate. Instrumental records and century-scale reconstructions indicate an accelerating tendency towards the positive PNA state since the mid-1850s, but much less is known about long-term PNA variability. Here we reconstruct PNA-like climate variability during the mid- and late Holocene using paired oxygen isotope records from two regions in North America with robust, anticorrelated isotopic response to the modern PNA. We identify mean states of more negative and positive PNA-like climate during the mid- and late Holocene, respectively. Superimposed on the secular change between states is a robust, quasi-200-year oscillation, which we associate with the de Vries solar cycle. These findings suggest the persistence of PNA-like climate variability throughout the mid- and late Holocene, provide evidence for modulation of PNA over multiple timescales and may help researchers de-convolve PNA pattern variation from other factors reflected in palaeorecords.

H. C. Steen-Larsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Hirabayashi, R. Winkler, K. Satow, F. Prié, N. Bayou, E. Brun, K. M. Cuffey, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. Dumont, M. Guillevic, S. Kipfstuhl, A. Landais, T. Popp, C. Risi, K. Steffen, B. Stenni, and A. E. Sveinbjörnsdottír. What controls the isotopic composition of Greenland surface snow? Climate of the Past, 10:377-392, February 2014. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

Water stable isotopes in Greenland ice core data provide key paleoclimatic information, and have been compared with precipitation isotopic composition simulated by isotopically enabled atmospheric models. However, post-depositional processes linked with snow metamorphism remain poorly documented. For this purpose, monitoring of the isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O, δD) of near-surface water vapor, precipitation and samples of the top (0.5 cm) snow surface has been conducted during two summers (2011-2012) at NEEM, NW Greenland. The samples also include a subset of ¹⁷O-excess measurements over 4 days, and the measurements span the 2012 Greenland heat wave. Our observations are consistent with calculations assuming isotopic equilibrium between surface snow and water vapor. We observe a strong correlation between near-surface vapor δ¹⁸O and air temperature (0.85 0.11 degC^-1 (R = 0.76) for 2012). The correlation with air temperature is not observed in precipitation data or surface snow data. Deuterium excess (d-excess) is strongly anti-correlated with δ¹⁸O with a stronger slope for vapor than for precipitation and snow surface data. During nine 1-5-day periods between precipitation events, our data demonstrate parallel changes of δ¹⁸O and d-excess in surface snow and near-surface vapor. The changes in δ¹⁸O of the vapor are similar or larger than those of the snow δ¹⁸O. It is estimated using the CROCUS snow model that 6 to 20% of the surface snow mass is exchanged with the atmosphere. In our data, the sign of surface snow isotopic changes is not related to the sign or magnitude of sublimation or deposition. Comparisons with atmospheric models show that day-to-day variations in near-surface vapor isotopic composition are driven by synoptic variations and changes in air mass trajectories and distillation histories. We suggest that, in between precipitation events, changes in the surface snow isotopic composition are driven by these changes in near-surface vapor isotopic composition. This is consistent with an estimated 60% mass turnover of surface snow per day driven by snow recrystallization processes under NEEM summer surface snow temperature gradients. Our findings have implications for ice core data interpretation and model-data comparisons, and call for further process studies.

G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou. Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5. Climate of the Past, 10:221-250, February 2014. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

M. Benetti, G. Reverdin, C. Pierre, L. Merlivat, C. Risi, H. C. Steen-Larsen, and F. Vimeux. Deuterium excess in marine water vapor: Dependency on relative humidity and surface wind speed during evaporation. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 119:584-593, January 2014. [ bib | DOI | ADS link ]

We provide the first continuous measurements of isotopic composition (δD and δ¹⁸O) of water vapor over the subtropical Eastern North Atlantic Ocean from mid-August to mid-September 2012. The ship was located mostly around 26degN, 35degW where evaporation exceeded by far precipitation and water vapor at 20 m largely originated from surface evaporation. The only large deviations from that occurred during a 2 day period in the vicinity of a weak low-pressure system. The continuous measurements were used to investigate deuterium excess (d-excess) relation to evaporation. During 25 days d-excess was negatively correlated with relative humidity (r² = 0.89). Moreover, d-excess estimated in an evaporative model with a closure assumption reproduced most of the observed variability. From these observations, the d-excess parameter seems to be a good indicator of evaporative conditions. We also conclude that in this region, d-excess into the marine boundary layer is less affected by mixing with the free troposphere than the isotopic composition. From our data, the transition from smooth to rough regime at the ocean surface is associated with a d-excess decrease of 5, which suggests the importance of the ocean surface roughness in controlling d-excess in this region.