lmd_Risi2006.bib
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@article{2006BAMS...87S...1E,
author = {{Emanuel}, K. and {Ravela}, S. and {Vivant}, E. and {Risi}, C.
},
title = {{Supplement to A Statistical Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment}},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
year = 2006,
month = mar,
volume = 87,
pages = {1},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-87-3-Emanuel},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006BAMS...87S...1E},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2006BAMS...87..299E,
author = {{Emanuel}, K. and {Ravela}, S. and {Vivant}, E. and {Risi}, C.
},
title = {{A Statistical Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment.}},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
year = 2006,
month = mar,
volume = 87,
pages = {299-314},
abstract = {{Hurricanes are lethal and costly phenomena, and it is therefore of great
importance to assess the long-term risk they pose to society. Among the
greatest threats are those associated with high winds and related
phenomena, such as storm surges. Here we assess the probability that
hurricane winds will affect any given point in space by combining an
estimate of the probability that a hurricane will pass within some given
radius of the point in question with an estimate of the spatial
probability density of storm winds.To assess the probability that storms
will pass close enough to a point of interest to affect it, we apply two
largely independent techniques for generating large numbers of synthetic
hurricane tracks. The first treats each track as a Markov chain, using
statistics derived from observed hurricanetrack data. The second
technique begins by generating a large class of synthetic, time-varying
wind fields at 850 and 250 hPa whose variance, covariance, and monthly
means match NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and whose kinetic energy follows
an {$\omega$}$^{-3}$ geostrophic turbulence spectral frequency
distribution. Hurricanes are assumed to move with a weighted mean of the
850- and 250-hPa flow plus a {\ldquo}beta drift{\rdquo} correction, after
originating at points determined from historical genesis data. The
statistical characteristics of tracks generated by these two means are
compared.For a given point in space, many (10$^{4}$) synthetic
tracks are generated that pass within a specified distance of a point of
interest, using both track generation methods. For each of these tracks,
a deterministic, coupled, numerical simulation of the storm's intensity
is carried out, using monthly mean upper-ocean and potential intensity
climatologies, together with time-varying vertical wind shear generated
from the synthetic time series of 850- and 250-hPa winds, as described
above. For the case in which the tracks are generated using the
synthetic environmental flow, the tracks and the shear are generated
using the same wind fields and are therefore mutually consistent.The
track and intensity data are finally used together with a vortex
structure model to construct probability distributions of wind speed at
fixed points in space. These are compared to similar estimates based
directly on historical hurricane data for two coastal cities.
}},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006BAMS...87..299E},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{2006BAMS...87....1E,
author = {{Emanuel}, K. and {Ravela}, S. and {Vivant}, E. and {Risi}, C.
},
title = {{Supplement to A Statistical Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment}},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
year = 2006,
volume = 87,
pages = {1},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-87-3-Emanuel},
adsurl = {http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006BAMS...87....1E},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
